2017 was chock filled with films that had great contributions from female, minority, queer (does anyone still use that word?) and Trans people than ever. And surprisingly the Oscars have gone out of their way to be more diverse. So this year the movies, Ladybird Get Out, Mudbound, A Fantastic Woman, Call Me By Your Name, and Strong Island got mostly deserved nominations. Some of them might actually win
Some complained that Wonder Woman should have gotten nominated. It should not have come as a big surprise that it wasn’t. While it was both a box office and critical triumph. Superhero films hardly ever get nominated (although Logan got an unexpected best screenplay nod), and the film was released too early in the year. Still with the nominations of Logan and Get Out the academy is at least masking strides toward recognizing that genre films actually exist.
A big chance is also more direct to Netflix nominees including Mudbound, Heroin(e), the foreign-language film from Hungary, On Body and Soul, and two full length documentaries; and Strong Island.
These are my comments on this year’s Academy Award nominees.
Best Picture:
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
The Shape of Water is by far the most visually impressive and dazzling of the best picture nominees, but I don’t think its interspecies romance story (imagine a remake of Creature from the Black Lagoon story in which the gill man’s crush is reciprocated) will win over enough voters. Look for it to win some technical categories (perhaps best cinematography, visual effects or set design). Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has outstanding acting and characters, but its open ended ending might not thrill everyone. It still has a good shot (perhaps the best shot) at winning. Get Out was extraordinarily memorable, and in my opinion it is the best of the nominees. But the last time that a horror film won best picture was Silence of the Lambs (the superior Psycho was not even nominated.) Phantom Thread has one of the best performances. But it might be too cerebral, icy, esoteric and melancholy to win (Day Lewis may take best actor though). The Post is just the kind of no risk, conventional film filled with noble characters that Oscar voters tend to love, and it also has plenty of star power. But it’s the weakest and most conventional of the nominees, but I think it still has a pretty good shot. Lady Bird is fresh, lively, and refreshing, and it could win if a strong female/feminist Oscar contingent pushes for it, and it also is also quite worthy. It’s also about time a woman won that award again (Jane Campion where are you?). Call Me by Your Name and Darkest Hour could pull an upset, but they may not have the momentum. Dunkirk was somewhat overrated, and it probably came out too early in the year to make a big impact with voters. Christopher Nolan is a great director but this is not his best work. Florida Project which was my fav American film of the year got screwed. Personal Shopper which got no nominations for anything and some of the best foreign film nominees were also better than most of this list.
Will Win: Three Billboards (the Post is my 2nd choice)
Should Win: Get Out
Best Director:
For me this is the most significant category, since the actual voters are themselves directors. The directors often have better taste than the general Oscar voters, and this category usually has it least some sane choices for nominations even if the winners are sometimes ludicrous (Kevin Costner over Scorsese? Really?) Christopher Nolan probably won’t take this award this time (he should have gotten one for Inception). Jordan (Get Out) Peele and Greta (Lady Bird) Gerwig each have a good chance, but Lady Bird is a little more likely to win in an acting category, and Get Out is more likely to get honored for its writing. Del Torro and Anderson have a shot but their works are arty and esoteric. Remember for some Oscar voters, Ordinary People is edgy.
Will Win: Anyone except Nolan has a shot (with a slight nod to Peele and Gerwig.)
Should win: Gerwig or Peele
Lead Actress:
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Margo Robie was impressive in I Tonya, but it is still early in her career and she will have other chances (The academy often rewards legacies over individual performances or films which is why Scorsese won for The Departed). Sally Hawkins is always extraordinary, but she actually gave a better performance in Sadie this year. She still might win. Saoirse was brilliant in Lady Bird (she was even a little better in her previously nominated film, Brooklyn). Meryl Streep gave a bland, milquetoast performance in The Post, and she does not deserve a win this time (unless they reward her for last year’s anti Trump speech), and I don’t think she should have been nominated. At this point she would get nominated for sleepwalking. But Frances McDormand gave a once in a lifetime performance, and her work had the most dramatic weight of all the nominees. I think she will get it this time. Where is Kristin Stewart (Personal Shopper), Cynthia Nixon (A Quiet Passion) and Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game?) In all fairness this is the most overcrowded category and it was one of the better years for female performances. Gail Gadot will also have to wait.
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Should win McDormand or perhaps Saorsie Ronan (Except for Streep they are all worthy)
Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Marry J. Blige was excellent in Mudbound, but it would be unprecedented for a Netflix film to win in a major category. It might help that she is a double threat and that she is both a talented singer and actress. But then again the academy tends to underrate singers turned actors (in previous years Bjork got stiffed for Dancer in the Dark and Courtney Love for People vs Larry Flynt despite Golden Globe noms.) Alison Janney and Laura Metcalf have more of a chance (both of them were superb playing powerful, flawed moms.) Octavia Spencer was perfectly likeable in Shape of Water, but I don’t quite think she is in the running. Her role is small compared to some of her competitors. Lesley Manville was fine as a saintly wife in Phantom Thread, but the she is too much of an unknown quantity foe voters (I never heard of her before this film. Also Day Lewis IS the reason that film exists. This should be called battle of the cinematic moms.
Will win: Allison Janney (by a hair)
Should win: Laurie Metcalf
Lead Actor:
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Tomothee Chalamet gave a convincing performance in Call Me by Your Name, but he (and the film) has little star power. Also there is some controversy due to the apparent age disparity of the actors playing the lovers even though the age of consent in Italy is lower (Of course this did not hurt Polanski). But these are different times and the voters are more likely to punish real or fictional sexual indiscretions. Denzel Washington is always superb, but Roman J. Israel was not a particularly important or well-reviewed film. Gary Oldman is probably my preferred choice here and also the probable winner. He’s extraordinarily good and if you watch his performance here back to back with Sid and Nancy he’s unrecognizable. Oldman is the one actor here who totally remade himself in the role. Daniel Day Lewis has a shot because this may be his last film and everyone respects him, but his character in The Phantom Thread might not be likeable enough though. Daniel Kaluuya is fine, but he’s a bit too new, unknown and obscure. He won’t win unless there is a Get Out sweep which is unlikely but not impossible. Of the nominees, Daniel Day Lewis and Washington are the best actors overall if you look at their whole careers, but Oldman did the exact kind of role Oscar voters typically love and it may be his quintessential performance. The most edgy and challenging male performance I saw was James Franco in The Disaster Artist, but I don’t think the sexual harassment allegations helped him.
Will win: Gary Oldman
Should Win: Gary Oldman
Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Assuming there is a Three Billboards sweep, Sam Rockwell’s performance or (Woody Harrelson’s) has a more than good chance at winning unless they spilt the vote. Harrelson is a bigger marquee name but they were both excellent, and Rockwell had a bigger part so he gets a slight nod. I never saw All the Money in the World (I wish I saw more money), but it is one of the least nominated nominees, and I don’t think it will win in this one category. Richard Jenkins may not be big enough or likeable enough in his film to pull off a win. Dafoe is one of the finest, risk taking character actors around, and I have always admired his work immensely (he was a great Jesus and all his work with Lars Von Trier is always worth seeing). Plus his performance as a likeable sympathetic landlord in The Florida Experiment was terrific. Too bad the film did not make a better splash (it should have been nominated for best picture.)
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Should win: Willem Dafoe
Adapted Screenplay:
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Adapted screenplay: All of the nominees were excellent. It was a surprise that the Xmen film, Logan was nominated but it’s the underdog. Academy voters usually see superhero and other “disreputable “genre films as a kind of cinematic vermin. Both Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain also should have been nominated for best actress) and The Disaster Artist were terrific, but I think Call me By Your name will win. It was the most nominated of the contenders, and it has the most momentum. Also James Ivory is an old time film guy with lots of respect. It’s also decently done, and the people supporting it tend to love it.
Original Screenplay:
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh
Original screenplay: I am going with Get Out for both should and will win. The most adventurous genre breaking films sometimes get rewarded in lesser categories. The Big Sick is a marvelous little gem that has a remote shot, but Greta Gerwig could also win.
Will and Should win: Get Out
Cinematography:
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen
For cinematography, The Shape of Water will take it because it is the biggest profile nominee, and it is also gorgeous. But Roger Deakins is even worthier for his incredibly sumptuous Blade Runner follow-up (it actually visually rivals the original classic in some aspects). I would be a little surprised but not terribly disappointed if Mudbound won. Rachel Morrison did good work in it and she also shot Black Panther. Both Dunkirk and Darkest Hour should not have been nominated. Wind River which had some of the year’s best cinematography got robbed here
Will Win: Dan Laustsen
Should Win: Roger Deakons
Animated Feature:
“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman
I only saw half of the best animated films but of the ones I saw Coco was the best and it has the most cultural significance (at least Captain Underpants was not nominated.) Loving Vincent, the sumptuous Van Gogh film also worked well and it looked gorgeous, but it’s the underdog here. Ferdinand is a big dud.
Best Documentary Feature:
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes
Faces Places was a complete home run from Agnes Varda, one of the few surviving members of the French new wave. She may not live long enough to get another nod, and she has been around forever (I loved Vagabond). It was worth it just to see her film just to see jean-Luc Godard blow her off on screen. It is the best film here. Strong Island and Icarus were also both superb. Strong Island has more emotionally resonance, but Icarus which deals with the Russian doping scandal is more relevant because of the current ongoing Russian election medaling investigation. Last Men in Aleppo has great word of mouth and it also has a shot. Icarus, Last Men, and Strong Island are all on Netflix. For once this might be helpful because it’s difficult to find these films at the theatres.
Will Win: Icarus
Should win: Faces Places
Original soundtrack
Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell
I’ve heard and respect all these names, but Jonnny Greenwood, from Radiohead is a composing/guitar playing deity. Burn the Witch. I also think his work was used better in the film than the competition. Since Mary J. Blige also acts in Mudbound this might give her an advantage in the best song category.
Original Song:
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Sufjan Stevens song is the only one that made me recall actual scenes from the movie. I’ll go with it for should and will win. Common’s song was good too and it does not hurt that he is also a credible actor (he was an army official in Megan Leavey.) I’m still going with Sufjan. You can listen to his masterpiece, Come On Feel the Illinoise (correct spelling) right here.
Best Foreign Language Film:
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)
For me this is often the best and most high quality category. The Square was on the most critics’ top 10 lists. A Fantastic Woman also got good reviews, and it’s a fine film (it’s currently playing at the Music Box). The response to The Insult (at Landmark) was more mixed. The Square won big at Cannes Film Festival so it may have the best shot. On Body and Soul is a terrific, involving film about a man and woman that dream they are romantically involved deer even though they never met. The film has about as much chance of winning as Eraserhead had to take best picture. It’s too odd. Of course I loved it. The Russian film, Loveless won’t come out in Chicago until March so I will withhold comment on the film.
To see more of Vittorio Carli’s work go to www.artinterviews.org. Also look for his upcoming poetry book, Tape Worm Salad with Olive Oil for Extra Flavor coming in 2018.
